ANR Project T-REX

The project

Forecast is a major task of statistics in many domains of application. It often takes the form of a probabilistic forecast where the so-called predictive distribution represents the uncertainty of the future outcome given the information available today. Of particular interest is the distributional forecast of rare and extreme events, for instance environmental hazards such as flooding or heat waves, that can have major socio-economic consequences but for which current prediction is often inaccurate and unsatisfactory.

Members

The consortium involves the following institutions: Laboratoire de Mathématiques de Besançon (LmB), Institut Camille Jordan (ICJ), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), Centre National de Recherche Météorologiques (CNRM), Laboratoire Traitement et Communication de l’Information (LTCI), Laboratoire de Probabilités Statistique et Modélisation (LPSM), EDF Lab Paris Saclay (EDF)

News

• 4-7/10/21: The workshop Valpred 3 is organized at the Centre Paul Langevin in Aussois with more than 40 participants !
• 01/09/21: Romain Pic is hired for a PhD on the statistical post-processing of probabilistic weather forecast jointly supervised by Clément Dombry (LmB), Philippe Naveau (LSCE) and Maxime Taillardat (CNRM) .
• 01/07/21: A contributed session on “Prediction and validation for extremes” is organised at the Extreme Value Analysis Conference EVA 2021.
• 01/03/21: Romain Pic is hired for a Master internship (6 months) and will work on the prediction of extreme weather forecast.
• 01/01/21: The T-REX project is officially launched for 4 years !

Publications

• M. Taillardat. Skewed and Mixture of Gaussian Distributions for Ensemble Postprocessing. Atmosphere, 12(8), 966, 2021.